Some fun predictions you may not be aware of:
- SpaceX aims to land a human on Mars by 2024; Potential Mars base by 2030. [1];[2]
With the possibility of a whole new world to live on, how will our relationship with Earth change? Our spiritual perspectives, our economic ones? - Artificial Intelligence indistinguishable from human consciousness (AGI) viable as early as 2030. [3]
Aka, ‘The Singularity’, where AI is able to exponentially self-improve far beyond our own intelligence. How will this force us to change our perspective on consciousness? Would AGI be ‘stable’? Friendly or hostile? - Global social collapse caused by climate change has been forecasted for 2050 at the current rate. [4]
We’re likely all familiar with the projections of climate change, but little public discussion is made over the very real threat of feedback systems triggering global collapse; what are our obligations? How should we live with this possibility? - Our population is projected to reach ~11 billion by 2100. [5]
If we make it that far, how would you like to share your space with +30% more people? How do our political systems and our relationship with our environment need to change? - All the while, our rate of technological growth and track record for progress suggests the greatest change is likely still hidden from view. [6]
Less than 20 years ago, I would never have guessed the world would revolve around our phones; less than a year ago, I had no idea the world would be locked down by a virus. What can’t we see? How do we live with the potential for extreme unknowns?
Asides from this list, there’s things like cybernetic enhancements (with Musk’s mind-computer interface Neuralink debuting a couple of weeks ago), nanotechnology enhancing or mass-murdering life, medical advances with the potential to increase life indefinitely… The list goes on; for further reading Tegmark’s Future of Life Institute and Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute make good starting places.
With these in mind, this month we’ll be considering the implications of such vast changes at all scales, be it political, personal, cultural, economical, or otherwise.
We want to hear your responses – as art, as words, on the blog, in comments, or privately to me (see here!) – to questions like these:
With these in mind, this month we’ll be considering the implications of such vast changes at all scales, be it political, personal, cultural, economical, or otherwise.
We want to hear your responses – as art, as words, on the blog, in comments, or privately to me (see here!) – to questions like these:
-
- What do you think life will be like in 2050? 2100?
- What do you want life to be like?
- How likely do you think the above predictions are?
- What would (will?) a world with hyper-intelligent AI be like?
- How do these leviathan possibilities of our future affect our present choices, as individuals? How should they affect them?
- What sort of personal/social skills will we need to stay grounded as a global community?
As ever, please please please, if this topic interests you in any way, and you have absolutely anything to contribute that might help broaden the horizons of this discussion, get in touch via the Contribute page or comment below.
I look forward to hearing what you all have to offer,
King x
P.S.: Don’t forget to subscribe if you don’t want to miss out!
So on Reddit I was guided to this essay called by Catherine Ingram called “facing extinction” which is all about impending collapse, how it is inevitable and how we should just kinda deal with it and not worry too much. I warn you it is raw, depressingly honest and painful to read but perhaps necessary to grasp a full on view about the pretty high potential for collapse within the next 100 years. Would love to hear what more people think about it as it did certainly rock my view on our future.
Here’s the link : https://www.catherineingram.com/facingextinction/
Hey Felix,
Thank you so much for your response! Yes, her point of view is roughly where I’ve landed after my Physics degree– I was often struck by the stark constrast between those in the natural science departments held much more matter-of-fact and bleak outlooks about the environment, while everyone else mostly pottered on optimistically.
The science types seemed much more aware of the realities of the big number of ‘tipping points’ we’re inevitably about to hit, than the rest of those I’ve spoken to.
The only way ‘around’ the big tipping point events seems to be unpredictable, ‘lucky’ things happening, like the possibility of a mini ice age (“Time will tell whether the sun will once again go into another ‘Maunder Minimum’ within the lifetime of the present generation, but if this happens we’re likely to have a much colder climate for a few decades.” – https://www.sunlive.co.nz/blogs/13580-solar-activity-and-next-maunder-minimum.html) – or someone striking gold on novel technology and efficient energy generation etc.
Whatever the weather (hehe), we’re living in volatile times indeed!
The predictions are interesting and credible, except ‘Global social collapse caused by climate change has been forecasted for 2050 at the current rate’. Back in the 60s there was serious discussion on whether the world could feed 3 billion people. We’re now talking 10 – 11 billion – and we know we can feed them.
Will that be helped by AI? Surely – but conditional either on enslaving it or on working with AI to both our advantages (a little like ‘will there be war between the USA and China’).
One thing’s for sure – we need to use our brains and not beliefs to preserve the world’s climate and biodiversity while feeding all those people.
Thanks for the thoughts!
Hey Charles, I really appreciate you sharing your thoughts 🙂
I completely agree with the ever-receeding horizon of doomsday predictions, and I don’t personally think overpopulation will ever be a real threat to us as a species; the UN’s predictions actually state our growth rate will drop to practically zero around 2100.
However, it’s info from sources like what Felix posted above (https://www.catherineingram.com/facingextinction/) that really fuel my doubt for the future– not just if’s and maybe’s over whether global warming is serious or accelerating, but the imminent likelihood of mass warming events pushing us over tipping points etc… But, I’m no fool, I know we know very little and that anything can happen 😉
AI on the other hand… That really tickles me, because if the singularity happens, and in the way its presumed it will – (Hawking: “The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”; Gates and Musk saying similar – https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/05/14/how-frightened-should-we-be-of-ai) – then who the bloody hell knows what’ll happen!
You’re certainly right about brains keeping us on the straight and narrow, however if not belief, we’ll definitely need something more than cold intelligence to keep us sane and happy.
There’s a nicely optimistic piece by Iain Banks (Look to Windward) – photo attached, hope it’s readable. Contrasts with a darker approach on the birth and evolution of AI by Alastair Reynolds in ‘The Medusa Chronicles’.
Not photo attached 🙁 But I have read all of his Culture series; a lot of very important ideas in his stuff. Been looking for my next sci-fi so will look into The Medusa Chronicles…
Really looking forward to this month’s stuff!
Thank you 😀